538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up

The 2024 presidential election forecast is live. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with director of data analytics G. Elliott Morris to talk about the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While Trump leads in the polls nationally and in the battleground states, the fundamentals favor Biden, resulting in an extremely close call between the two. Elliott and Galen discuss the sources of uncertainty in the forecast and what we might expect between now and Election Day.

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The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.

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