Are prediction markets democratizing information or gamifying war?

Who will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? What will the price of gold be at the end of the week? Who will win the World Cup? All of these are relatively benign bets you can make today. But there are other bets that maybe aren’t so benign, like will Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro be removed from office by the end of January? That well-timed bet, made in the hours before the U.S. captured and extracted Maduro, netted the anonymous investor who made it $400,000. Are prediction markets democratizing information as some argue or are we monetizing reality in a way that incentivizes perverse motives? Alex Goldenberg, Fellow at Rutgers University, joins The Excerpt to explain how these markets work and the risks they pose financially and politically. (This episode originally aired on February 11, 2026.)

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Episode transcript available here.