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The Gray Area with Sean Illing

Can prediction markets be good for society?

October 16, 2026
Can prediction markets be good for society?

Can prediction markets serve a purpose beyond gambling?

In today’s episode, guest host Miles Bryan speaks with professor Finn Brunton in a conversation based on his recent Harper’s article, “The Chaos Machine: Prediction Markets and the Triumph of Crypto-Anarchy.” The two explore alternative visions for prediction markets: as tools for gathering collective knowledge, or as a way to undermine the institutions we rely on. They discuss whether putting money on the line brings us closer to the truth, how betting can create incentives to manipulate events, and what we risk when more of our shared reality becomes something to wager on.

Host: Miles Bryan, Vox Senior Producer and Reporter

Guest: Finn Brunton, Professor at the University of California, Davis

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