Do prediction market bettors make anything better?

Have you noticed a lot of young people getting into antenna-maxxing as alpha? Or, maybe searching for any bit of copium after they fat-fingered and got rinsed? Or maybe they farmed during a yes-fest on Mention Markets resulting in some serious printing? 

If none of that made sense to you, then we have the perfect episode for you. 

Prediction markets have taken off in the past few years, using the same legal loopholes as the crypto market to essentially claim they are a “swap,” or “futures market,” similar to that of the totally legal grain and pork belly markets, and less like the state-regulated sports gambling market. 

And they are great for the bondsharps who print on the regular (or, in English, “well known market makers who often make a lot of money”). 

These prediction market companies exist because they’ve convinced regulators that they’re also great for the rest of us. They're adding new knowledge to the world. Making us more informed about the future. 

On today’s episode, the case Kalshi has been making to regulators, the courts and the public as to why what looks like gambling and seems like gambling … is not. Why that argument’s kinda been working. And – if no one stops them – what prediction markets could do to our future.

For more, listen to former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson on The Indicator from Planet Money.

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This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Bobby Allyn and Mary Childs. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.

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